Modern Methods of Prediction

Humans have always wanted to know what the future holds in store for them. In earlier centuries, people often sought clues from sacred texts. Today, more secular approaches are increasingly used, although older persist. Modern methods prediction include trend extrapolation, Delphi method, mathematical modeling, and scenario analysis, including backcasting. Extrapolation was only possible when reliable past data became available. The method relies on judgement of experts subject matter. Mathematical modeling has been very successful physical sciences, and, form integrated assessment models (IAMs), applied problems such as assessing energy use. Scenario analysis looks at a number futures develops internally consistent story lines around each. It is used conjunction with IAMs. Each four methods, both their strengths weaknesses, discussed turn. Finally, this entry prediction, concludes that despite progress each treated, predicting future, never easy, now harder than ever.